Bangladesh Royal AI Club link Intel Glasgow1758-Asia-Ed3dao390

Sir Fazle Abed -top 70 alumni networks & 5 scots curious about hi-trust hi-tech

resources recommended by world bank courseaa on risk management

https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Week_1_resources
Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  1. Why is the management of risks essential for development?
  2. What are the goals and motivation for risk management?
  3. What are the elements of an effective risk management process?
  4. How can people effectively confront risks that are beyond their capacity? What is the potential role of various social and economic systems in supporting people’s risk management?
Deep Dives
Rachel Kyte
External site

Rachel Kyte, World Bank Group Vice President and Special Envoy for Climate Change, explains the need to move from a tradition of disaster response to a culture of disaster prevention in order to strengthen resilience. Her talks atTedxSendai focus on the theme of natural disasters, disaster recovery, and resilience.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Disasters and their Impact on Poverty
Download PDF 

Clarke, Daniel, and Robert Reid. 2003. “Disasters and their Impact on Poverty.” InDisaster Risk Management in Post-2015 Development Goals: Potential Targets and Indicators, edited by Tom Mitchell, Lindsey Jones, Emma Lovell, and Eva Comba, pages 34–40. Overseas Development Institute.

This chapter highlights the importance of measuring transitory poverty due to natural disasters and of acknowledging its social cost. It introduces two potential indicators for disaster-induced transitory poverty. It also explores the possibility of accounting for the probability of an extreme event of a given magnitude occurring in a given year for measuring resilience to disasters, and supporting informed investments for increasing resilience to disasters. These indicators can help monitor whether progress in poverty reduction can withstand shocks and stresses, including disasters.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Social Impact of Financial Crises: Evidence from the Recent Global Financial Crisis
Download PDF 

Ötker-Robe, İnci, and Anca Maria Podpiera. 2013. “Social Impact of Financial Crises: Evidence from the Recent Global Financial Crisis.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6703. Background Paper to the 2014 World Development Report.

Economic and social indicators have deteriorated significantly since 2007. Countries hardest hit by the crisis lost more than a decade of economic progress. Regionally, advanced European and North American countries lost on average more than six years of economic time, while Central Eastern Europe and South Asia lost at least four. Young people have been hit particularly hard, with an estimated 74 million young people out of jobs in 2012 around the world. The financial crisis has disproportionately hurt the poor. Progress in poverty reduction has been uneven across regions, and the pace has slowed since 2007 across the board. Progress toward meeting the millennium development targets for undernourishment, primary education, maternal mortality, and improved sanitation slowed in the countries hit hardest by the crisis. Income distribution has worsened, while development indicators have deteriorated in several countries in Europe and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
World Bank President calls for improved disaster risk management.
External site 

World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim is urging countries to prepare for disasters in order to reduce their vulnerability to catastrophic events. He spoke at an international dialogue in Sendai, Japan, after touring areas affected by the disastrous earthquake and tsunami that struck the nation in 2012.
Jobs for youth: Lost for years to come–ILO TV reports from Greece.
External site 

Greece has been one of the countries hit hardest by the financial crisis. Youth unemployment has soared and job prospects look bleak. According to the ILO's Global Employment Trends for Youth 2012, it may take four to five years before jobs rebound.

Views: 121

▶ Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by chris macrae on July 20, 2014 at 10:23pm
Week 2 Resources https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Week_2_Resources
Core
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 1. Risk Management Can Be a Powerful Instrument for Development.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014,| “Chapter 1. Risk Management Can Be a Powerful Instrument for Development” (pages 53–75, boxes optional).

This chapter provides the analytical framework of the risk management process. It elaborates on the relevance of risk management for development and the goals of risk management—resilience, to recover from negative shocks; and prosperity, derived from successfully managing positive shocks that open opportunities for development. It explains the risk chain—the environment in which risks and opportunities arise. It provides greater depth on the components that a strong risk management strategy should include—knowledge, protection, insurance and coping. It also provides a sense of the cost-effectiveness of preparation for risk. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  • Why is risk management relevant for development and what are its goals?
  • What are the relationships represented in the risk chain?
  • What are the characteristics of the different risk management components, and how are they interlinked?
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 2. Beyond the Ideal: Obstacles to Risk Management and Ways to Overcome Them.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014,| “Chapter 2. Beyond the Ideal: Obstacles to Risk Management and Ways to Overcome Them” (pages 78–103, boxes optional).

This chapter shows that the risk management framework described in chapter 1 is an ideal and that its implementation is often impaired, in practice, by many obstacles and constraints. It describes the most common obstacles faced by individuals and states, including lack of resources and information, missing markets and public goods, social and economic externalities, and political economy problems. It underlines the importance of identifying and prioritizing obstacles to risk management, and it proposes a policy sequence and policy priorities to be considered in order to tackle these obstacles and allow for improvements in risk management over time. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  1. What are the most common categories of obstacles that people face when managing risk?
  2. What constraints prevent states from helping people overcome these obstacles?
  3. What are the policy priorities to address obstacles to risk management in the long term?

Deep Dives
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
A Review of the Ex Post and Ex Ante Impacts of Risk.
Download PDF

Oviedo, Ana María, and Harry Moroz. 2013. “A Review of the Ex Post and Ex Ante Impacts of Risk.” Background Paper for the World Development Report 2014.

This paper offers a comprehensive view of risk by reviewing the effects of different types of risk on welfare, assets, human capital, and other outcomes at different points in the life cycle. It also examines the mechanisms through which risk affects these outcomes. The review distinguishes between the effects of idiosyncratic risk and aggregate risk, as well as between ex post and ex ante effects. It draws policy-relevant conclusions about the main obstacles that people face in managing risk efficiently, and identifies empirical challenges that researchers need to address to identify more clearly the relationship between risks, obstacles to risk management, and outcomes.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Benefit-Cost Analysis for Risk Management: Summary of Selected Examples.
Download PDF 

Wethli, Kyla. 2013. “Benefit-Cost Analysis for Risk Management: Summary of Selected Examples.” Background Paper for the World Development Report 2014.

Benefit-cost analysis provides one means of identifying the cases in which specific interventions to manage risk appear to be cost-effective. This paper summarizes the insights from a selected sample of benefit-cost analyses across a range of categories. Risk management appears cost-effective in many cases, sometimes overwhelmingly so. Improving early warning systems in developing countries could yield estimated benefits 4 to 36 times greater than the cost. The review suggests that preparation for risk often has high returns: although the costs of preparing for risk can be high, the costs that can be averted may be substantially higher.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention.
Download PDF 

World Bank and United Nations. 2010. Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention. Washington, DC: World Bank.

This report focuses on the effects of natural hazards on human welfare, particularly on its economic aspects. It contains case studies, data, and the application of economic principles to the problems posed by earthquakes, abnormal weather, and the like. It emphasizes the roles of market, government intervention, and social institutions in determining and improving both the prevention of and the response to hazardous occurrences. The report also draws from other disciplines: psychology, to examine how people may misperceive risks; political science, to understand voting patterns; and nutrition science, to see how stunting in children after a disaster impairs cognitive abilities and productivity later in their lives as adults. The report stresses that the growth of cities will increase exposure to hazards. However, if the cities are well managed, their vulnerability will not rise. The report also emphasizes the challenges posed by the changes in climate.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Investment Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: Application to Climate Change.
Download PDF 

Hallegatte, Stéphane, Ankur Shah, Robert Lempert, Casey Brown, and Stuart Gill. 2012. “Investment Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: Application to Climate Change.” Policy Research Working Paper 6193, World Bank, Washington, DC.

Agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views. The presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties cannot be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), the paper then summarizes existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with uncertainty related to climate change: namely, cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate-informed decision analysis. It also provides examples of applications of these methodologies, highlighting their pros and cons and their domain of applicability. The paper concludes that it is impossible to define the “best” solution or to prescribe any particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu of methodologies is required, together with some indications on which strategies are most appropriate in which contexts. This analysis is based on a set of interviews with decision makers, in particular World Bank project leaders, and on a literature review on decision making under uncertainty. It aims at helping decision makers identify which method is more appropriate in a given context, as a function of the project’s lifetime, cost, and vulnerability.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Psychology and Behavioral Economics Lessons from the Design of a Green Growth Strategy.
Download PDF 

Weber, Elke U., and Eric J. Johnson. 2012. “Psychology and Behavioral Economics Lessons from the Design of a Green Growth Strategy.” Policy Research Working Paper 6240, World Bank, Washington, DC.

A green growth agenda requires policy makers, from local to supranational levels, to examine and influence behavior that impacts economic, social, and environmental outcomes on multiple scales. Behavioral and social change, in addition or conjunction with technological change, are thus crucial components of any green growth strategy. A better understanding of how and why people consume, preserve, or exploit resources or otherwise make choices that collectively impact the environment has important and far-reaching consequences for the predictive accuracy of more sophisticated models, both of future states of the world and of the likely impact of different growth strategies and potential risk management strategies. The prevailing characterization of human decision making in policy circles is based on a model of economic rationality. Relying on the assumptions of rational choice excludes from consideration a wide range of factors that affect how people actually make decisions. These factors need to be considered in predicting people’s responses to environmental conditions or proposed policy initiatives. A more complete and more fully descriptive understanding of decision processes also provides powerful tools for policy design that complement legal or economic instruments or may lead to more effective implementation of such policy instruments.
Permalink Reply by chris macrae on July 20, 2014 at 10:26pm

week 3.1 resources https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Module_3.1_Resources

Module 3.1 Resources
Core
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 3. Households Are the First Line of Support to Confront Risk and Pursue Opportunities.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014,| “Chapter 3. Households Are the First Line of Support to Confront Risk and Pursue Opportunities” (pages 109–135; boxes are optional).

This chapter provides greater depth on how the household contributes to people’s risk management and how this contribution can be enhanced. It elaborates on the most frequent risks that the households face, and their preparation tools and coping mechanisms. It highlights the limitations to risk management by poor households, notably arising from limited access to protection and insurance mechanisms or from imbalances of power and inequalities within the household. It describes the government policies that can substantially improve household risk management and increase households’ access to better opportunities. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  • How can households contribute to risk management, and what tools do they have at their disposal?
  • What are the obstacles and limitations to household risk management?
  • Which characteristics improve households’ contribution to risk management?
  • What are the necessary policies to empower households as a unit and to empower individuals within household?
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 4. Cohesive and Connected Communities Create Resilience.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014,| “Chapter 4. Cohesive and Connected Communities Create Resilience” (pages 138–163; boxes are optional).

This chapter provides greater depth on how communities can help people’s risk management and how their contribution can be improved. It elaborates on the ways communities can provide risk management tools, such as protection and informal insurance. It underlines and explains the characteristics that make communities more effective—cohesiveness and connectedness. It also explains how the communities can become much better at risk management with the right type of support from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), donors, and local and national governments. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  1. How do contributions to risk management from communities of location differ from those of communities as a cultural, identity-based group?
  2. How do communities provide risk management tools such as insurance and protection?
  3. How can the government help alleviate communities’ weaknesses and improve their role in people’s risk management?

Deep Dives
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Moving Out of Poverty. Volume 2: Success from the Bottom Up.
Download PDF

Narayan, Deepa, Lant Pritchett and Soumya Kapoor. Moving Out of Poverty. Volume 2: Success from the Bottom Up. Washington, DC: World Bank.

The Moving Out of Poverty series presents the results of new comparative research across more than 500 communities in 15 countries on how and why poor people move out of poverty. This study is one of the few large-scale comparative research efforts to focus on mobility out of poverty rather than on poverty alone. It draws together the experiences of poor women and men who have managed to move out of poverty over time and the processes and local institutions that have helped or hindered their efforts. It draws on people's own understanding of freedom, democracy, equality, empowerment, and aspirations-and how these affect poor people in different growth, social, and political contexts. The study finds that poor people take lots of initiative-in many cases, even more than those who are better off. There are millions and millions of poor microentrepreneurs. The investment climate of these microentrepreneurs has not been a centerpiece of poverty strategies. Too often, poor people do not face a leveled playing field. Despite the microcredit revolution, poor people remain outside of most financial services; and large lenders remain reluctant to lend to microenterprises and microentrepreneurs. New institutional models and financial instruments are needed to serve poor people's financial needs and give them the capital they need to expand their businesses and connect to markets.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
What Are the Sources of Risk and How Do People Cope? Insights from Household Surveys in 15 Countries.
Download PDF 

Heltberg, Rasmus, Ana María Oviedo, and Faiyaz Talukdar. 2013. “What Are the Sources of Risk and How Do People Cope? Insights from Household Surveys in 15 Countries.” Background Paper to the 2014 World Development Report.

This study provides results on a major multicountry comparison of household surveys on shocks and coping. Natural disasters, health shocks, economic shocks, and asset loss are the most commonly reported types of shocks. People often cope using costly responses that increase their vulnerability to future shocks. The authors conclude that household survey modules on shocks and coping largely fulfill their objective of providing information on risk exposure, yet do little to inform policy beyond providing broad diagnostics.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
World Values Survey
External site 

The World Values Survey (WVS) is a global network of social scientists who have surveyed the basic values and beliefs of the public in over 100 societies, on all six inhabited continents; how these values and beliefs change over time; and what social and political impact they have. The WVS measures, monitors and analyzes support for democracy; tolerance of foreigners and ethnic minorities; support for gender equality; the role of religion and changing levels of religiosity; the impact of globalization; attitudes toward the environment, work, family, politics, national identity, culture, diversity, and insecurity; and subjective well-being.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Permalink Reply by chris macrae on July 20, 2014 at 10:28pm

week 3.2 resources https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Module_3.2_Resources

Module 3.2 ResourcesHelp

Module 3.2 Resources
Core
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 5. Fostering Resilience and Prosperity through a Vibrant Enterprise Sector.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014,| “Chapter 5. Fostering Resilience and Prosperity through a Vibrant Enterprise Sector” (pages 167–189).

This chapter provides greater depth on the ways that the enterprise sector can help people confront risk and increase their resilience and prosperity. It describes the role and importance of two features of the enterprise sector that can improve its contribution to risk management-flexibility and formality. It describes government policies that can substantially help enhance these two characteristics and increase people’s access to better opportunities. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  • How can the enterprise sector increase people’s resilience and access to opportunities?
  • What are the characteristics that that can improve its contribution to risk management?
  • What are the policies and policy principles for government to help enhance these characteristics?
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 6. The Role of the Financial System in Managing Risk.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014, “Chapter 6. The Role of the Financial System in Managing Risk” (pages 192–221).

This chapter provides greater depth on how the financial sector fulfills a beneficial function of risk management and how this function can be improved. It describes the range of financial tools that can serve good risk management and the factors that affect the access to these tools. It also stresses the risk the financial system can impose on people, due to its propensity to crisis. It further highlights and advocates the government reforms that can help broaden a responsible use of financial tools and prevent systemic financial crises. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  1. What tools can the financial sector provide for risk management?
  2. What characteristics improve the financial sector’s risk management role?
  3. What are the trade-offs between financial inclusion and financial stability?
  4. What can public policy do to broaden the availability and use of financial risk managing tools and to foster financial stability?

Deep Dives
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development.
Download PDF

LaPorta, Rafael, and Andrei Shleifer. 2008. “The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 47 (1): 123–35.

In developing countries, informal firms account for up to about half of all economic activity. Using data from World Bank firm-level surveys, the authors find that informal firms are small and extremely unproductive compared with even the small formal firms in the sample, and especially relative to the larger formal firms. Formal firms are run by much better educated managers than informal ones and use more capital, have different customers, market their products, and use more external finance. Few formal firms have ever operated informally. This evidence supports the dual economy (“Wal-Mart”) theory of development, in which growth comes about from the creation of highly productive formal firms. Informal firms sustain millions of people but disappear as the economy develops.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Barriers to Formal Entrepreneurship in Developing Countries.
Download PDF 

Auriol, Emmanuelle. 2013. “Barriers to Formal Entrepreneurship in Developing Countries.” Background paper for World Development Report.

This paper analyzes barriers to formal entrepreneurship, and thus to the formal sector growth. First, the analysis focuses on the administrative barriers in the form of official entry fees. It argues that by reducing market entry fees, developing countries could enlarge their formal sectors and hence the tax base. It also examines social barrier to formality in the form of family taxation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because of the lack of social protection, Africans have developed a culture of forced mutual help that implies that local entrepreneurs in the formal sector have the social obligation to subsidize their family. This leads to a reduction in the firms’ productivity. The paper concludes that a low level of taxation and the lack of social protection have damaging consequences on the development of the formal sector, and thus of firm growth.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Financial Inclusion for Financial Stability: Access to Bank Deposits and the Deposits Growth in the Global Financial Crisis.
Download PDF 

Han, Rui, and Martin Melecky. 2013. “Financial Inclusion for Financial Stability: Access to Bank Deposits and the Deposits Growth in the Global Financial Crisis.” Background Paper to the 2014 World Development Report.

This paper examines the link between the broader access to bank deposits observed before the 2008 crisis and the dynamics of bank deposit growth during the crisis, while controlling for relevant covariates. The authors find that greater access to bank deposits can make the deposit funding base of banks more resilient in times of financial stress. Policy efforts to enhance financial stability should thus not only focus on macroprudential regulation, but also recognize the positive effect of broader access to bank deposits on financial stability.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
World Bank. 2014. Financial Inclusion. Global Financial Development Report 2014.
Download PDF 

The Global Financial Development Report 2014 focuses on financial inclusion and demonstrates its importance for development and poverty reduction. It also stresses that policies promoting financial inclusion for all at all costs can lead to greater financial and economic instability. The report offers evidence-based advice on policies that support healthy financial inclusion. It also underscore the promising role of new technologies for expanding financial inclusion and highlights the importance of promoting innovative product designs that address market failures, meet consumer needs, and overcome behavioral problems.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Doing business database
External site 

This database presents comprehensive quantitative data that allows for comparison of business regulation environments across economies and over time. It offers measurable benchmarks for reform; and serves as a resource for academics, journalists, private sector researchers, and others interested in the business climate of particular countries.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Global Findex database
External site 

This database measures how adults in 148 countries save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
World Economic Forum’s Global Competiveness Database
External site 

The Global Competitiveness Index assesses the competitiveness of 148 economies across 10 pillars.
Permalink Reply by chris macrae on July 20, 2014 at 10:32pm

week 3.3 resources https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Module_3.3_Resources

Module 3.3 Resources
Core
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Chapter 7. Managing Macroeconomic Risk. Building Stronger Institutions for Better Policy Outcomes.
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014,| “Chapter 7. Managing Macroeconomic Risk. Building Stronger Institutions for Better Policy Outcomes” (pages 225–247).

This chapter underlines the importance of a stable macroeoconomic environment and ample resources (fiscal space) that can finance government programs. It discusses policies that can reduce uncertainty and, hence, enable other economic and social systems to concentrate on productive activities and plan for the long term. It emphasizes the stabilizing role of countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. It shows how the conduct of transparent and credible monetary policy has succeeded in delivering low inflation worldwide in the last 25 years. On the other hand, less progress has been made in the conduct of fiscal policy due to its inherent complexity. Nevertheless, several developing countries have improved fiscal transparency and discipline; this has enabled them to build buffers during economic upturns so that they have had resources to respond in economic downturns.

This chapter stresses the vital importance of making fiscal room to cope with shocks and deal with unexpected obligations. It describes ways to create fiscal space to build resilience for coping with economic downturns and to manage macroeconomic contingent liabilities. The chapter concludes by describing key institutional reforms to improve macroeconomic management. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  • How can macroeoconomic policies help manage the economic cycle in good times and cope in bad times?
  • How has sound monetary policy helped deliver low inflation worldwide?
  • What are the institutional changes that can help countries escape from the trap of fiscal procyclicality?
  • Which are the ways to create fiscal space to build resilience and to manage macroeconomic contingent liabilities?
  • Which are the institutional changes that can improve risk management at the macroeconomic level?
Deep Dives
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Focus on Policy Reform. Create independent fiscal and financial agencies to promote sustainable policies
Download PDF

World Development Report 2014, Focus on Policy Reform, Reform 2 (Create independent fiscal and financial agencies to promote sustainable policies) (pages 280–281).

Reform 2 focuses on one of the four areas highlighted in the World Development Report 2014 where fundamental institutional reforms for better risk management are needed. It explains how establishing fiscal councils can promote fiscal sustainability. Also, it stresses the need for independent macroprudential supervisors to promote financial stability. It also discusses the experiences of countries that already have these institutions in place.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Volatility and Growth.
Download PDF 

Hnatkovska, Viktoria, and Norman Loayza. 2005. “Volatility and Growth.” In Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide, edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto, 65–100. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

In this paper, the authors study the relationship between macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth. They find that macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth are negatively related. This negative link is exacerbated in countries that are poor, institutionally underdeveloped, undergoing intermediate stages of financial development, or unable to conduct countercyclical fiscal policies. They find evidence that this negative relationship reflects the harmful effect from volatility to growth, and that the negative effect of volatility on growth is mostly due to large recessions rather than normal cyclical fluctuations.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Zooming in from Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution.
Download PDF 

Calderón, César, and Eduardo Levy Yeyati. 2009. “Zooming in from Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution.” Policy Research Working Paper 4895, World Bank, Washington, DC.

This paper examines the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty, and inequality. They find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric, and nonlinear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme declines in output. The findings show that public expenditure and labor protection have a beneficial effect and underscore the value of social programs and labor market regulation in developing countries prone to crises.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
What Should Fiscal Councils Do?
Download PDF 

Calmfors, Lars, and Simon Wren-Lewis. 2011. “What Should Fiscal Councils Do?” Economic Policy 26(68): 649–95.

In this paper, authors consider potential explanations for the tendency of governments to allow deficit and public debt levels to increase and assess how independent institutions (fiscal councils) can help reduce this bias. They outline the specific tasks that fiscal councils might undertake and describe how are these combined in eleven existing fiscal councils. The paper includes two case studies of the fiscal councils in the United Kingdom and Sweden.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
“Don’t Panic.” The Economist, February 1, 2014.
External site 

This article highlights economic factors that make most of the emerging market stronger than they were 15 years ago and argues that, despite economic weaknesses in two emerging markets, there are no reasons for a broad emerging market crisis.
Permalink Reply by chris macrae on July 20, 2014 at 10:34pm

week 3.4 resources

Module 3.4 Resources
https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Module_3.4_Resources
Core
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
World Development Report 2014,| Chapter 8 (pages 251–76).
Download PDF

This chapter provides greater depth on the important role that the international community can play in helping people and their governments manage risk and pursue opportunities. It describes the circumstances that necessitate contributions by the international community, and the risk management instruments at the international level: global knowledge and expertise; global rules; capacity building and coordination; and mobilization of global resources. It reviews the international community’s significant contribution and progress in addressing risks, as well as the factors that limit its effectiveness. It provides policy recommendations to improve the ability of the international community to foster collective actions. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  • When and how can the international community increase people’s resilience and access to opportunities?
  • What characteristics facilitate collective action?
  • How can the international community improve its contribution to fostering collective action despite its multiple players, complicated power structures, and often diverging goals?
Deep Dives
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)
External site

Established in 2006, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a partnership of 41 countries and 8 international organizations committed to helping developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. The partnership’s mission is to mainstream disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in country development strategies by supporting a country-led and managed implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. GFDRR’s Partnership Charter, revised in April 2010, sets its original mission, rationale, and governance structure.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Pandemic Risk
Download PDF 

Jonas, Olga B. 2013. “Pandemic Risk.” Background Paper for World Development Report 2014.

This paper analyzes what pandemic risk means for development and how management of these risks can be improved, at both national and international level. It highlights the role of the international community in pandemic risk reduction and global risk management tools. It offers selected lessons from coping with pandemics and an analysis of factors underlying the mismanagement of pandemic risk. It also describes cost-effective, incentive-compatible policies to reduce pandemic risk.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Fragile States: Resource Flows and Trends
Download PDF 

OECD. 2013. Fragile States: Resource Flows and Trends. Conflict and Fragility Series. Paris: OECD.

This report review the concept of fragility, analyzes financial flows to and within fragile states between 2000 and 2011, and highlights trends and issues that are likely to shape fragility in the years to come. Despite the fact that half of fragile states are now middle-income countries, poverty remains concentrated in fragile states. It is estimated that by 2015, half the world’s people surviving on less than $1.25 per day will live in fragile states. The report notes that to address fragility as a driver of poverty and instability requires approaching fragility as a deeply political issue. The report highlights the issue of concentration of aid both within countries as well as at country level. Half of official development assistance (ODA) to fragile states goes to seven “donor darlings.” At the country level, some countries depend on extremely few donors, making them vulnerable to the inherent volatility of aid, while for some other countries there is an overabundance of small donors, making coordination difficult. The report concludes that the prospects for aid, growth, and poverty reduction in fragile states are gloomy, overall.
Dare to Prepare: Taking Risk Seriously
External site 

This video highlights the findings of the Oveseas Development Institute’s 2013 research report, Dare to Prepare: Taking Risk Seriously. The report focuses on international community’s financing of emergency preparedness, and finds that such financing is for the most part not adequate. It often does not exist, and where it does exist, it is usually complicated and fragmented. The report presents findings that support further investment in emergency preparedness activities, as the benefits far outweigh the costs. This report argues that while there are advantages to enhancing existing financing mechanisms, simply bolstering the existing system is not sufficient, and global solution must be considered.
Act Now, Act Together, Act Differently in Response to Climate Change
External site 

This video was part of the World Bank MOOC, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided.

Marianne Fay, Chief Economist, Sustainable Development and Climate Change, Climate Change Group, World Bank, stresses the need to act now, act together, and act differently in response to climate change, and underscores directions for how to translate this into action.
Permalink Reply by chris macrae on July 20, 2014 at 10:36pm
Week 4 Resources https://class.coursera.org/managerisk-001/wiki/Week_4_Resources
Core
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
World Development Report 2014, Overview (pages 21–42, including boxes).
Download PDF

This section of the overview summarizes the risk management contributions from the key social and economic systems and the public policies that have the potential to enhance them. It stresses the need for the public policy recommendations to be implemented in a proactive, systematic, and integrated way in order to optimize their efficiency. It explains how establishing a national risk board can facilitate proactive and integrated risk management. It concludes by explaining five principles that can be useful to guide the public action. These principles are derived from best practices around the world and relevant for different types of risks and countries. The boxes in this section describe three of the fundamental institutional reforms for better risk management identified by the World Development Report 2014: ensuring access to social insurance and solving problems of tying social insurance to employment status; creating independent fiscal and financial agencies to promote sustainable policies; and for international community, embracing incremental approaches that can increase traction toward global solution. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  • What are the main characteristics of the key social and economic systems that improve their risk management role?
  • What are the main public policies that can enhance key systems’ risk management contributions?
  • What is the overarching institutional reform recommended by the World Development Report 2014?
  • What are the five principles that should guide the public action for better risk management?
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
World Development Report 2014, Focus on Policy Reform (Pages 278-79).
Download PDF

The World Development Report 2014 identifies four areas where fundamental institutional reforms for better risk management are needed: establishing a national risk board; creating independent fiscal and financial agencies to promote sustainable policies; ensuring access to social insurance and solving problems of tying social insurance to employment status; and for international community, embracing incremental approaches that can increase traction toward global solution. This section focuses on the first reform: establishing a national risk board to assess and manage risks in an integrated way. It describes why managing specific risks in an isolated manner can lead to inefficiencies, both in formulating and implementing risk management strategies. It provides specific advices that reflect lessons from best practices around the world on the practical aspects of implementing this reform. Some questions you may want to reflect on when reading this text include the following:

  1. How does looking at risks in an integrated manner help define policy priorities and improve the efficiency of implementing risk management strategies?
  2. How can a national risk board be established and what functions should have?
  3. What do you think would be an appropriate institutional design for a national risk board in your own country?

Deep Dives
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Innovations in Country Risk Management.
Download PDF

OECD. 2009. Innovations in Country Risk Management. OECD Studies in Risk Management, OECD, Paris.

This OECD report reviews development and innovative practices in the risk management of large-scale events in six countries: the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Japan, the Netherlands, and Singapore. It focuses on organizational improvements and challenges to the pre-event phases of risk management: risk identification, assessment, and mitigation. It also tackles the important challenge that the governments face in determining how to meet and equitable share the costs involved by these practices.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Global Risks 2007: A Global Risk Network Report.
Download PDF 

World Economic Forum. 2007. Global Risks 2007: A Global Risk Network Report. Geneva: World Economic Forum.

Global Risks 2007 suggests two institutional innovations that could help improve the mitigation mechanisms of global risks. One is a Country Risk Officer—analogous to a Chief Risk Officer in the corporate world—who would serve as a focal point for understanding and managing a portfolio of risks, for establishing effective national priorities for risks and distribution of resources for managing different risks. A Country Risk Officer would be well placed to understand the interconnectedness between global risks, and help put into place a more strategic understanding and response to global risks.
Image by: World Bank/
CC BY-NC-ND license
Risk Governance: Towards an Integrative Approach.
Download PDF 

Renn, Ortwin, and Peter Graham. 2005. “Risk Governance: Towards an Integrative Approach.” White Paper 1. International Risk Governance Council, Geneva.

The establishment of International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) was the direct result of widespread concern within the public sector, the corporate world, academia, the media, and society at large that the complexity and interdependence of an increasingly large number of risk issues was making it ever more difficult for risk managers to develop and implement adequate risk governance strategies. IRGC promotes a multidisciplinary, multisectoral, and multiregional approach to risk governance. This White Paper represents a fundamental step toward achieving IRGC’s mission: the development of an integrated, holistic, and structured approach—a framework—with which to investigate risk issues and the governance processes and structures pertaining to them.

▶ Reply to Discussion

RSS

About

chris macrae created this Ning Network.
Create a Ning Network! »

KERRY GLASGOWIS HUMANITY'S LAST BEST CHANCE - Join search for Sustainaabilty's Curricula

101ways-generation.docx 101 ways education can save the world WHAT IF WE DESIGNED LIFELONG LIVELIHOOD LOEARNING SO THAT so that teachers & students, parent & communities were empowered to be ahead of 100 times more tech rather than the remnants of a system that puts macihnes and their exhausts ahead of human life and nature's renewal 2016 is arguably the first time thet educatirs became front and centre to the question that Von neummn asked journalist to mediate back in 1951- what goods will peoples do with 100 times more tech per decade? It appears that while multilaterals like the Un got used in soundbite and twittering ages to claim they valued rifghts & inclusion, pubblic goods & safety, they fotgot theirUN tech twin in Genva has been practising global connectivity since 1865, that dellow Goats of V neumnn has chiared Intellectual Cooperation in the 1920s which pervesrely became the quasi trade union Unesco- it took Abedian inspired educations in 2016 ro reunite ed and tecah as well as health and trade ; 7 decades of the UN not valuing Numenn's question at its core is quite late, but if we dare graviate UN2 aeound this digital coperation question now we give the younger half if the world a chnace especially as a billion poorest women have been synchronised to deep community human development since 1970

Dear Robert - you kindly asked for a short email so that you could see if there is a CGTN anchor in east coast who might confidentially share views with my expectation of how only Asian young women cultural movements (parenting and community depth but amplified by transparent tech in life shaping markets eg health, food, nature..) can return sustainability to all of us
three of my father's main surveys in The Economist 1962-1977 explain imo where future history will take us (and so why younger half of world need friendship/sustainable adaptation with Chinese youth -both on mainland and diaspora)
 1962 consider japan approved by JF Kennedy: argued good news - 2 new economic models were emerging through japan korea south and taiwan relevant to all Asia Rising (nrxt to link the whole trading/supply chains of the far east coast down through hong kong and cross-seas at singapore)
1 rural keynsianism ie 100% productivity in village first of all food security- borlaug alumni ending starvation
2 supercity costal trade models which designed hi-tech borderless sme value chains- to build a 20 million person capital or an 8 million person superport you needed the same advances in engineering - partly why this second economic model was win-win for first time since engines begun Glasgow 1760 ; potentially able to leverage tech giant leaps 100 times ahead; the big opportunity von neumann had gifted us - knowhow action networking multiply value application unlike consuming up things
1976 entrepreneurial revolution -translated into italian by prodi - argued that future globalisation big politics big corporate would need to be triangularised by community scaled sme networks- this was both how innovation advancing human lot begins and also the only way to end poverty in the sense of 21st C being such that next girl born can thrive because every community taps in diversity/safety/ valuing child and health as conditions out of which intergenerational economic growth can spring
in 1977 fathers survey of china - argued that there was now great hope that china had found the system designs that would empower a billion people to escape from extreme poverty but ultimately education of the one child generation (its tech for human capabilities) would be pivotal ( parallel 1977 survey looked at the futures of half the world's people ie east of iran)
best chris macrae + 1 240 316 8157 washington DC
IN MORE DETAIL TECH HUMAN EXPONENTIALS LAST CHANCE DECADE? 
 - we are in midst of unprecedented exponential change (dad from 1960s called death of distance) the  tech legacy of von neumann (dad was his biographer due to luckily meeting him in his final years including neumann's scoping of brain science (ie ai and human i) research which he asked yale to continue in his last lecture series). Exponential risks of extinction track to  mainly western top-down errors at crossroads of tech  over last 60 years (as well as non transparent geonomic mapping of how to reconcile what mainly 10 white empires had monopoly done with machines 1760-1945 and embedded in finance - see eg keynes last chapter of general theory of money); so our 2020s destiny is conditioned by quite simple local time-stamped details but ones that have compounded so that root cause and consequence need exact opposite of academic silos- so I hope there are some simple mapping points we can agree sustainability and chinese anchors in particular are now urgently in the middle of
Both my father www.normanmacrae.net at the economist and I (eg co-authoring 1984 book 2025 report, retranslated to 1993 sweden's new vikings) have argued sustainability in early 21st c will depend mostly on how asians as 65% of humans advance and how von neumann (or moores law) 100 times more tech every decade from 1960s is valued by society and business.
My father (awarded Japan's Order of Rising Sun and one time scriptwriter for Prince Charles trips to Japan) had served as teen allied bomber command burma campaign - he therefore had google maps in his head 50 years ahead of most media people, and also believed the world needed peace (dad was only journalist at messina birth of EU ) ; from 1960 his Asian inclusion arguments were almost coincidental to Ezra Vogel who knew much more about Japan=China last 2000 years ( additionally  cultural consciousness of silk road's eastern dynamics not golden rule of Western Whites) and peter drucker's view of organisational systems
(none of the 10 people at the economist my father had mentored continued his work past 1993- 2 key friends died early; then the web turned against education-journalism when west coast ventures got taken over by advertising/commerce instead of permitting 2 webs - one hi-trust educational; the other blah blah. sell sell .sex sell. viral trivial and hate politicking)
although i had worked mainly in the far east eg with unilever because of family responsibilities I never got to china until i started bumping into chinese female graduates at un launch of sdgs in 2015- I got in 8 visits to beijing -guided by them around tsinghua, china centre of globalisation, a chinese elder Ying Lowrey who had worked on smes in usa for 25 years but was not jack ma's biographer in 2015 just as his fintech models (taobao not alibaba) were empowering villagers integration into supply chains; there was a fantastic global edutech conference dec 2016 in Tsinghua region (also 3 briefings by Romano Prodi to students) that I attended connected with  great womens education hero bangladesh's fazle abed;  Abed spent much of hs last decade hosting events with chinese and other asian ambassadors; unite university graduates around sdg projects the world needed in every community but which had first been massively demonstrated in asia - if you like a version of schwarzman scholars but inclusive of places linking all deepest sustainability goals challenges 
and i personally feel learnt a lot from 3 people broadcasting from cgtn you and the 2 ladies liu xin and  tian wei (they always seemed to do balanced interviews even in the middle of trump's hatred campaigns), through them I also became a fan of father and daughter Jin at AIIB ; i attended korea's annual general meet 2017 of aiib; it was fascinating watching bankers for 60 countries each coming up with excuses as to why they would not lead on infrastructure investments (even though the supercity economic model depends on that)
Being a diaspora scot and a mathematician borders (managers who maximise externalisation of risks) scare me; especially rise of nationalist ones ;   it is pretty clear historically that london trapped most of asia in colomisdation ; then bankrupted by world war 2 rushed to independence without the un or anyone helping redesign top-down systems ; this all crashed into bangladesh the first bottom up collaboration women lab ; ironically on health, food security, education bangladesh and chinese village women empowerment depended on sharing almost every village microfranchise between 1972 and 2000 especially on last mile health networking
in dads editing of 2025 from 1984 he had called for massive human awareness by 2001 of mans biggest risk being discrepancies in incomes and expectations of rich and poor nations; he suggested that eg public broadcast media could host a reality tv end poverty entrepreneur competition just as digital media was scaling to be as impactful as mass media
that didnt happen and pretty much every mess - reactions to 9/11, failure to do ai of epidemics as priority from 2005 instead of autonomous cars, failure to end long-term carbon investments, subprime has been rooted in the west not having either government nor big corporate systems necessary to collaboratively value Asian SDG innovations especially with 5g
I am not smart enough to understand how to thread all the politics now going on but in the event that any cgtn journalist wants to chat especially in dc where we could meet I do not see humans preventing extinction without maximising chinese youth (particularly womens dreams); due to covid we lost plans japan had to relaunch value of female athletes - so this and other ways japan and china and korea might have regained joint consciousness look as if they are being lost- in other words both cultural and education networks (not correctly valued by gdp news headlines) may still be our best chance at asian women empowerment saving us all from extinction but that needs off the record brainstorming as I have no idea what a cgtn journalist is free to cover now that trump has turned 75% of americans into seeing china as the enemy instead of looking at what asian policies of usa hurt humans (eg afghanistan is surely a human wrong caused mostly by usa); a; being a diaspora scot i have this naive idea that we need to celebrate happiness of all peoples an stop using media to spiral hatred across nations but I expect that isnt something an anchor can host generally but for example if an anchor really loves ending covid everywhere then at least in that market she needs to want to help united peoples, transparency of deep data etc

2021 afore ye go to glasgow cop26-

please map how and why - more than 3 in 4 scots earn their livelihoods worldwide not in our homeland- that requires hi-trust as well as hi-tech to try to love all cultures and nature's diversity- until mcdonalds you could use MAC OR MC TO identify our community engaging networks THAT SCALED ROUND STARTING UP THE AGE OF HUMANS AND MACHINES OF GKASGOW UNI 1760 1 2 3 - and the microfranchises they aimed to sustain  locally around each next child born - these days scots hall of fame started in 1760s around   adam smith and james watt and 195 years later glasgow engineering BA fazle abed - we hope biden unites his irish community building though cop26 -ditto we hope kamalA values gandhi- public service - but understand if he or she is too busy iN DC 2021 with covid or finding which democrats or republicans or american people speak bottom-up sustainable goals teachers and enrrepreneurs -zoom with chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk if you are curious - fanily foundation of the economist's norman macrae- explorer of whether 100 times more tehc every decade since 1945 would end poverty or prove orwell's-big brother trumps -fears correct 2025report.com est1984 or the economist's entreprenerialrevolutionstarted up 1976 with italy/franciscan romano prodi

help assemble worldrecordjobs.com card pack 1in time for games at cop26 glasgow nov 2021 - 260th year of machines and humans started up by smith and watt- chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk- co-author 2025report.com, networker foundation of The Economist's Norman Macrae - 60s curricula telecommuting andjapan's capitalist belt roaders; 70s curricula entreprenurial revolution and poverty-ending rural keynesianism - library of 40 annual surveys loving win-wins between nations youth biographer john von neumann


http://plunkettlakepress.com/jvn.html

101%20ways%20that%20lifelong%20education%20can%20prevent%20your%20kids%20being%20the%20extinction%20generation.docx

© 2025   Created by chris macrae.   Powered by

Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service